Equity Refinance Mortgage Loans Canada - Equity Mortgage Loans Canada - Second Mortgage Loans Canada
Mortgage Loans Canada, Mortgage Refinance Canada, Equity Mortgage Loans CanadaOnline Mortgage Application Form Instant Mortgage Approval 1-866-573-3122 24 HOUR CUSTOMER SERVICEEQUITY REFINANCE MORTGAGE LOANS CANADA BLOGMortgage Canada Buying and selling a home cheat sheetMortgage Canada Words To Know When Buying A HomeImportant Mortgage Websites linksMortgage Canada Basics - Mortgage Canada GuideMortgage Canada CMHC Newcomers to Canada Buying your First HomeMortgage Canada CMHC Home Buying Step By StepMortgage Canada CMHC Condominium Buyers GuideMortgage Canada Compare all Canadian Credit CardsHow Credit Effects Your Canadian MortgageMortgage Canada CMHC Housing Market Outlook Canada Edition Page 1Mortgage Calculator - Mortgage calculators allow you to make informed mortgage decisions
Equity Refinance Mortgage Loans Canada, Home Equity Unlocking, 1st & 2nd Mortgages, Your Mortgage Experts. My right Mortgage, INSTANT APPROVAL 24/7 CUSTOMER SERVICE FAST MORTGAGE PAYOUTS IN CANADA HIGHEST MORTGAGE APPROVAL RATE IN CANADA 1-866-573-3122

HOME BUYING, BUYING YOUR FIRST HOME & INFORMATION FOR SEASONED HOMEBUYERS
FINANCIAL CONSUMER AGENCY OF CANADA
CANADIAN ECONOMY NEWS
MORTGAGE BROKER NEWS
October, 2015
November, 2015
December, 2015
January, 2016

HOUSING MARKET ASSESSMENT Q4

VIEW FULL REPORT

U S G M A R K E T I N F O R M A T I O

HOUSING MARKET

 

ASSESSMENT

 

Canada

 

 

 

Date Released: Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Housing market intelligence you can count on

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

Highlights

 

  • This quarterly release1 of the Housing Market Assessment (HMA) provides updated results2 that evaluate the extent to which there is evidence of problematic housing market conditions in 15 Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs).

 

  • The HMA3 analytical framework considers four factors to assess the evidence of problematic housing market conditions: overheating; acceleration in the growth of house prices; overvaluation; and, overbuilding. The appendix of the first release, published in November 2014 in a special edition of Housing Now, contains a detailed description of the framework. A brief summary of it is presented on page 3 of this report.

 

  • The analytical framework detects strong evidence of problematic conditions in Toronto, Winnipeg, Saskatoon, and Regina.

 

  • The overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our framework for Toronto remains strong due to the detection of price acceleration and overvaluation.

 

  • Since the previous assessment, the overall level of evidence of problematic conditions detected by our framework has moved from moderate to strong for Saskatoon due to the detection of overvaluation and overbuilding.

 

  • In Winnipeg and Regina, there remains strong evidence of problematic conditions, reflecting detection of overvaluation and overbuilding.

 

  • The analytical framework detects moderate evidence of problematic conditions in Montréal, Ottawa and Québec.

 

  • Nationally, there remains moderate evidence of overvaluation4, reflective of a variety of price conditions across the country with some CMAs showing more signs of overvaluation than others. Notably, evidence of

 

overvaluation is now detected in Toronto, Vancouver, Montréal, Edmonton, and Saskatoon. CMHC’s framework also detects evidence of other problematic conditions such as overheating, acceleration in house prices, and overbuilding of varying degrees across CMAs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  1. The first release of the HMA results was in the first supplement of Housing Now in November 2014 with results for 8 CMAs: Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto, Ottawa, Montréal, Québec and Halifax. Saskatoon, Regina, Winnipeg and St.John’s (NL) were added in the second supplement, released in April 2015. Victoria, Hamilton and Moncton were added in the third supplement, released in August 2015.

 

  1. The presentation has now been simplified to show the direct comparison between the current and the previous assessment.

  2. Formerly known as the HPAA.

 

  1. Results are based on data as of the end of June 2015 and market intelligence as of the end of September 2015. CMHC continuously monitors market developments and will issue HMA updates on a quarterly basis

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUBSCRIBE NOW!

 

Access CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre publications quickly and conveniently on the Order Desk at

www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation.

 

View, print, download or subscribe to get market information e- mailed to you on the day it is released. CMHC’s

 

electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free.

 

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

2

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

Overview of the HMA analytical framework

 

To obtain an accurate picture of the overall state of the housing market, it is important to consider multiple data points and lines of evidence rather than relying on just one measure or indicator.

 

The HMA analytical framework provides a comprehensive and integrated view that relies on a combination of signals to assess housing market conditions.

 

The framework tests for (1) the presence or incidence of signals of potentially problematic conditions, but also considers; (2) the intensity of the signals, i.e. how different is the signal from its historical average or how consistent they are with known or suspected house price bubbles, such as for Toronto in the late 1980’s early 1990’s and; (3) the persistence of signals over time.

 

Generally, a lower number of signals, and low intensity or lack of persistence of the signals are

 

associated with weaker evidence of problematic conditions. Conversely, as the intensity, number, or persistence of the signals increases, the likelihood of a factor becoming problematic increases.

 

Specifically, the framework considers the incidence, intensity and persistence of four main factors that may provide an early indication of potentially problematic housing market conditions: (1) overheating of demand in the existing home market (i.e. demand significantly outpacing

 

supply); (2) acceleration in the growth rate of house prices; (3) overvaluation in the level of house prices; and,

 

(4) overbuilding of the housing market (i.e. supply significantly outpacing

 

 

demand, which can reflect excess new construction and/or a decline in demand for existing homes). It also considers oversupply in the rental market using the vacancy rate as an indicator.

 

The framework takes into account demographic, economic, and financial factors such as population growth, changes in personal disposable income, and interest rates. The framework also takes into account developments in both the resale market and the residential construction market.

 

As previously mentioned, the framework was developed on the basis of its ability to detect problematic housing market conditions in historical data, such

 

as the house price bubble Toronto experienced in the late 1980s and early 1990s.

 

Although it has also captured other periods of suspected problematic market conditions, the framework may not accurately assess current market conditions if these relationships were to unfold differently from past experience.

 

HMA Results

 

National Overview: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

At the national level, moderate overvaluation is still observed, meaning house prices are higher than levels consistent with personal disposable income, population growth and other factors. The inventory of completed and unsold units has trended higher and is above its historical average in large part because of the multi-unit segment. Among other factors, inventory management by builders is required so that demand is channeled towards

 

 

these units. Overheating and acceleration in house prices are not a concern at this time.

 

Vancouver: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

There is weak evidence of problematic conditions in Vancouver. The indicator for overheating is below its threshold in the second quarter despite resale market conditions favoring sellers. An increase in the number of listings, as well as the number of homes under construction, has helped to meet rising buyer demand. There is moderate evidence of overvaluation in the second quarter due to continued strong price growth.

 

Victoria: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

While the pace of existing home sales trended higher in the second quarter of 2015, particularly in the single- detached segment, the available supply of a wide range of housing types continues to provide choice for home buyers at all price points. Home price growth has been moderate so far in 2015 and is being supported

 

by population growth. Demand for new homes has been well -matched by builders, and both the number of units under construction and the inventory of completed and unsold units are within historical norms.

 

Calgary: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

There is moderate evidence of overvaluation detected as house prices posted robust gains in the last couple of years while growth in personal disposable income has recently slowed down. Due to low

 

oil prices, economic conditions have moderated, which has limited growth

 

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

3

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

in employment and income, as well as reduced net migration.

 

Edmonton: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

There is moderate evidence of overvaluation as house price growth has outpaced the gains in personal disposable income in recent months. Softer economic conditions brought on by low oil prices are leading to slower employment growth and lower migration.

 

Saskatoon: Strong evidence of problematic conditions

 

Despite downward pressure in prices, fundamental factors do not fully support the level of observed prices in Saskatoon which has increased the level of evidence of overvaluation to a moderate level. The inventory of new housing units is elevated and reflects overbuilding as does the units under construction which are also elevated relative to population. The reduction of housing starts that is occurring this year is beginning to address overbuilding.

 

Regina: Strong evidence of problematic conditions

 

Resale market conditions continue to be characterized by a high level of supply relative to demand creating conditions that favor the buyer.

 

As a result, the level of evidence of house price acceleration has been downgraded from moderate to low. Moderate evidence of overvaluation continues to reflect house prices that are high relative to economic and demographic

 

fundamentals. The inventory of newly completed housing units, especially condominium apartment units relative to population, remains elevated. However, lower housing starts

 

 

this year are beginning to address overbuilding.

 

Winnipeg: Strong evidence of problematic conditions

 

There continues to be moderate evidence of overvaluation though recent balanced market conditions have tempered price increases and employment and earnings are on the rise. The level of evidence of overvaluation reflects the continued effect of past conditions where house prices rose more quickly than economic and demographic fundamentals. Also, the number of units under construction and the number of unsold units are high. Continued upward pressure in inventory is expected to be more pronounced in the multi- unit sector where builders will likely proceed with projects in the planning stages

 

over the next year. As such, inventory management is required so that demand is channeled towards these unsold units.

 

Toronto: Strong evidence of problematic conditions

 

Continued price acceleration in the first half of 2015 reflects an increased share of sales of single detached homes and stronger price growth

 

at higher price levels. Inventories of both new and existing single-detached homes have been declining, which has contributed to rapid price growth in this segment. The continued rise in house prices has not been matched by growth in economic and demographic fundamentals giving rise to strong evidence of overvaluation.

 

The number of completed and unsold units has remained stable but high from the last quarter and continues to be above its historical average. However, the number of condominium apartment units under

 

construction has continued to decline

 

 

due to rising completions. The widening price differential between low rise and high rise units and a low average vacancy rate in the rental market suggest that unsold inventory could be steadily absorbed provided that builders manage inventories well.

 

Hamilton: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

The number of existing home sales grew faster than the number of new listings in the second quarter, pushing the sales-to-new-listings ratio up. There remains weak evidence of problematic housing conditions in Hamilton. Strengthening employment so far in 2015 continues to support homeownership demand in Hamilton.

 

Ottawa: Moderate evidence of problematic conditions

 

Despite moderation in house price growth, the moderate evidence

 

of overvaluation reflects the combination of strong growth in house prices in the last few years and modest gains in underlying fundamentals. The number of apartment units under construction in the second quarter remained steady compared to the first quarter, while the number of completed and unsold apartment units moderated slightly over the same period.

 

However, both numbers have gone up since the end of the second quarter, highlighting the need for builders to manage their inventories, particularly with new inventory at its highest level relative to recent year activity

 

Montréal: Moderate evidence of problematic conditions

 

The strong evidence of overvaluation reflects slower growth in first time home buyer demand combined with relatively modest growth in personal

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

4

 

 

disposable income. Condominium units completed and unsold have risen significantly over the past two years. Inventory management is necessary to make sure that the currently elevated number of condominium units under construction does not remain unsold upon completion.

 

Québec: Moderate evidence of problematic conditions

 

The strong evidence of overvaluation reflects slower growth in first time home buyer demand since 2012 combined with relatively modest growth in personal disposable income. After reaching a peak in 2013, completed and unsold condominiums are increasingly being absorbed in the market. Nonetheless, the inventory of condominiums on the resale market remains high.

 

Moncton: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

Evidence of overbuilding remains at a moderate level as higher than

 

average vacancy rates persist and the number of new rental units currently under construction remains elevated. Meanwhile multi-unit housing starts have slowed significantly this year as weaker employment and population growth continue to dampen the demand for housing.

 

Halifax: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

Rising population levels and improving employment conditions beginning in late 2014 are catching up to house prices and thus reducing the evidence of overvaluation of the housing market in Halifax. The evidence of overbuilding remains low, but the inventory of unsold multi-units is trending upward.

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

St. John’s: Weak evidence of problematic conditions

 

House prices have moderated since 2012, removing previous evidence associated with price acceleration. The number of unsold units has increased, leading to a moderate evidence of overbuilding. Inventory management is required to ensure that these new units are sold.

 

 

 

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

5

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

Table 1

 

Comparisonsns betweenAugustAugustand andOctoberOctober2015 2015

 

Overheating

Price

Overvaluation

Overbuilding

Overall

 

Acceleration

Assessment

 

 

 

 

 

Previous Current

Previous Current

Previous Current

Previous Current

Previous Current

 

 

Canada

 

Victoria

 

Vancouver

 

Calgary

 

Edmonton

 

Saskatoon

 

Regina

 

Winnipeg

 

Hamilton

 

Toronto

 

Ottawa

 

Montréal

 

Québec

 

Moncton

 

Halifax

 

St. John’s

 

 

Evidence of problematic conditions

 

Weak

 

Moderate

 

Strong

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Note 1: Colour codes indicate the level of evidence of problematic conditions: The HMA reflects a comprehensive framework that not only tests for the presence or incidence of signals of potentially problematic conditions, but also considers the intensity of signals (that is, how far the signal is from its historical average) and the persistence of signals over time. Generally, low intensity and persistence are associated with a lower potential of evolving into a problematic condition. As the number of persistent signals increases, the associated evidence of a problematic condition developing increases.

 

Note 2: Results at the CMA level are not segmented by housing type or neighbourhood. They represent an assessment of the entire CMA.

 

Note 3: The colour scale extends to red only for those factors that have multiple indicators signaling significant incidence, intensity and persistence of potentially problematic conditions. As a result, only overvaluation and overbuilding can receive a red rating, since they are assessed using more than one indicator.

 

Note 4: To ensure the framework is as current as possible, on a regular basis, we undertake a model selection process whereby our house price models for overvaluation are tested for statistical significance at the national and CMA level. The result of this process may change the number of indicators of a problematic condition from the previous assessment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

6

Housing Market Assessment - Canada - Date Released - Fourth Quarter 2015

 

 

 

CMHC—HOME TO CANADIANS

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) has been Canada's national housing agency for more than 65 years.

 

Together with other housing stakeholders, we help ensure that the Canadian housing system remains one of the best in the world. We are committed to helping Canadians access a wide choice of quality, environmentally sustainable and affordable housing solutions that will continue to create vibrant and healthy communities and cities across the country.

 

For more information, visit our website at www.cmhc.ca or follow us on Twitter, YouTube and Flickr.

 

You can also reach us by phone at 1-800-668-2642 or by fax at 1-800-245-9274.

 

Outside Canada call 613-748-2003 or fax to 613-748-2016.

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation supports the Government of Canada policy on access to information for people with disabilities. If you wish to obtain this publication in alternative formats, call 1-800-668-2642.

 

 

The Market Analysis Centre’s (MAC) electronic suite of national standardized products is available for free on CMHC’s website. You can view, print, download or subscribe to future editions and get market information e-mailed automatically to you the same day it is released. It’s quick and convenient! Go to www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation

 

For more information on MAC and the wealth of housing market information available to you, visit us today at www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation

 

 

 

©2015 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. All rights reserved. CMHC grants reasonable rights of use of this publication’s content solely for personal, corporate or public policy research, and educational purposes. This permission consists of the right to use the content for general reference purposes in written analyses and in the reporting of results, conclusions, and forecasts including the citation of limited amounts of supporting data extracted from this publication. Reasonable and limited rights of use are also permitted in commercial publications subject to the above criteria, and CMHC’s right to request that such use be discontinued for any reason.

 

Any use of the publication’s content must include the source of the information, including statistical data, acknowledged as follows:

 

Source: CMHC (or “Adapted from CMHC,” if appropriate), name of product, year and date of publication issue.

 

Other than as outlined above, the content of the publication cannot be reproduced or transmitted to any person or, if acquired by an organization, to users outside the organization. Placing the publication, in whole or part, on a website accessible to the public or on any website accessible to persons not directly employed by the organization is not permitted. To use the content of any CMHC Market Analysis publication for any purpose other than the general reference purposes set out above or to request permission to reproduce large portions of, or entire CMHC Market Analysis publications, please contact: the Canadian Housing Information Centre (CHIC) at chic@cmhc.ca; 613-748-2367 or 1-800-668-2642.

 

For permission, please provide CHIC with the following information:

 

Publication’s name, year and date of issue.

 

Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, no portion of the content may be translated from English or French into any other language without the prior written permission of Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

 

 

 

The information, analyses and opinions contained in this publication are based on various sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. The information, analyses and opinions shall not be taken as representations for which Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation or any of its employees shall incur responsibility.

 

 

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation

 

7

 

 

Housing market intelligence

 

you can count on

 

 

 

 

 

FREE REPORTS AVAILABLE ON-LINE

 

n Canadian Housing Statistics

 

n Condominium Owners Report n Housing Information Monthly

 

n Housing Market Outlook, Canada

 

n Housing Market Outlook, Highlight Reports – Canada and Regional n Housing Market Outlook, Major Centres

 

n Housing Market Tables: Selected South Central Ontario Centres n Housing Now, Canada

 

n Housing Now, Major Centres n Housing Now, Regional

 

n Monthly Housing Statistics

 

n Northern Housing Outlook Report n Preliminary Housing Start Data

 

n Rental Market Provincial Highlight Reports n Rental Market Reports, Major Centres

 

n Rental Market Statistics

 

n Residential Construction Digest, Prairie Centres n Seniors’ Housing Reports

 

Get the market intelligence you need today!

 

Click www.cmhc.ca/housingmarketinformation to view, download or subscribe.

 

 

 

CMHC’s Market Analysis Centre e-reports provide a wealth of detailed local, provincial, regional and national market information.

 

Forecasts and Analysis –

 

Future-oriented information about local, regional and national housing trends.

 

Statistics and Data –

 

Information on current housing market activities – starts, rents, vacancy rates and much more.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

68456_2015_Q04

 

 

 

HOUSING MARKET

 

INFORMATION PORTAL

 

The housing data you want, the way you want it

 

Information in one

 

 

central location.

Neighbourhood

 

Quick and

level data.

 

 

 

easy access.

cmhc.ca/hmiportal

 

 

<< Back Add New Comment
0 items total
Add New Comment
Name*
Subject*
Comment*
Please type the confirmation code you see on the image*
Reload image

Powered by 4GoodHosting